Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür
Loading...
Name Variants
Job Title
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi
Email Address
Main Affiliation
Department of Economics / İktisat Bölümü
Status
Current Staff
Website
ORCID ID
Scopus Author ID
Turkish CoHE Profile ID
Google Scholar ID
WoS Researcher ID
Scholarly Output
6
Articles
7
Citation Count
0
Supervised Theses
0
6 results
Scholarly Output Search Results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
Article Açık Bir Ekonomide Toplam İstikrarsızlığın Test Edilmesi(2022) Yılmaz, Yusuf ÖmürBu makale, alternatif para politikası kuralları altında pozitif uzun vadeli enflasyon oranı ve güneş lekesi şoku içeren küçük bir açık ekonomi Yeni-Keynesyen modeli kullanarak 2010 ve 2016 yılları arasında Türk ekonomisinin istikrarını ampirik olarak test etmektedir. Belirsizlik olasılıklarının bire çok yakın olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu dönemde ekonominin istikrarsız olduğu sonucuna varılabilir çünkü Merkez Bankası'nın enflasyona zayıf tepki vermesine rağmen uzun vadeli enflasyon oranı yüksek tek hanelidir. Bu durum ekonomiyi genel istikrarsızlığa sürüklemiştir.Article Misspecified expectations in an open economy(Elsevier, 2024) Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür; Cicekci, CumhurIn the past two decades, Turkey has experienced multiple changes in its monetary policy regime.To analyse how these policy changes affect the behaviours of households and firms, somebehavioural parameters are incorporated into a small open economy New Keynesian model. Ourapproach consists of four phases. First, we assess the impacts of the behavioural parameters onthe model and find that higher values of the parameters increase the effects of expectationson the model. Second, for the period between 2006 and 2021, the model is estimated for theTurkish economy and the findings show that both households and firms are more forward-looking in their decision making. Moreover, the current variables have a weak effect on thenominal interest rate, and the inertial nominal interest rate has a strong effect on it. Third, weanalyse the evolution of the model parameters over the period and find that the behaviouralparameters tend to increase, while the monetary policy becomes more inertial. Finally, weconclude that the Central Bank should follow Domestic Inflation-based Taylor rule to minimise welfare lossArticle Alışkan Formasyonlu Modelde Reel Döviz Kuru Dinamiği(2021) Yılmaz, Yusuf ÖmürAmpirik bulgular, reel döviz kurlarının hörgüç şeklinde dinamikler sergilediğini\rgöstermektedir. Fakat modern açık ekonomi modelleri çoğu zaman bu dinamikleri tahmin\redememektedir. Bu çalışmada, alışkanlık sürekliliği parametresi kullanılarak küçük açık\rekonomi modeli geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen model, risk paylaşım takozlu eksik bir piyasada\ralternatif para politikası kuralları altında standart para politikası şokuna cevaben reel döviz kuru\rdinamiklerini anlamamıza yardımcı olmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar, modele daha yüksek bir\ralışkanlık sürekliliği parametresinin dahil edilmesinin, standart ve ataletli Taylor kuralları\raltında reel döviz kurlarının hörgüç şeklindeki dinamiklerinin tahmin edilmesine yardımcı\rolduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı analizler, portföy uyarlama maliyetli eksik bir piyasada\rtekrarlanmış ve standart Taylor kuralında ilk dönemler hariç önceki analizlere benzer sonuçlar\rbulunmuştur.Article The Macroeconomic Effects of Positive Trend Inflation in a Small Open Economy(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Yilmaz, Yusuf Omur; Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür; Tunc, Gul IpekThe existing New Keynesian open economy literature tends to make the simplifying assumption that there is no trend inflation. In this paper, we reformulate the standard open economy model to account for positive trend inflation. We then employ the model to understand the effects of macroeconomic shocks in a small open economy when trend inflation is positive. Our main finding is that allowing for trend inflation significantly affects the dynamics of the model through real exchange rate dynamics rather than the slope of the New Keynesian Philips Curve. Specifically, higher trend inflation induces modestly more persistent real exchange rates' responses to the shocks. Further incorporation of trend inflation in an open economy enables us to discuss the Purchasing Power Parity and Delayed Overshooting Puzzles.Article Testing for Aggregate Instability in an Open Economy(Bogazici Universitesi, 2022) Yılmaz, Y.Ö.; Yılmaz, Yusuf ÖmürThis paper empirically tests the Turkish economy’s stability between 2010 and 2016 using a small open economy New-Keynesian model featuring a positive long-run inflation rate and sunspot shock under alternative monetary policy rules. We found that the probabilities of indeterminacy are very close to unity. We can thus conclude that the economy is unstable over this period primarily because the long-run inflation rate is in the higher single digits despite the Central Bank’s weak response to inflation. This drove the economy into aggregate instability. © 2022 Bogazici Universitesi. All rights reserved.Article Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Model With Habit Formation(Bogazici Universitesi, 2021) Yılmaz, Y.Ö.; Yılmaz, Yusuf ÖmürMuch empirical evidence indicates that real exchange rates display hump-shaped dynamics. However, modern open-economy models hardly predict this behavior. In this paper, we develop a small open-economy model by extending the habit persistence parameter. This model helps us to understand real exchange rate dynamics in response to a persistent monetary policy shock under alternative monetary policy rules in an incomplete market with a risk-sharing wedge. Results indicate that incorporating a higher habit persistence parameter into the model helps replicate the hump-shaped dynamics of real exchange rates under the standard and inertial Taylor Rules. The same analyses are repeated featuring an incomplete market with portfolio adjustment cost, yielding similar results except in initial periods to previous analyses for the standard Taylor rule. © 2021 Bogazici Universitesi. All rights reserved.
