Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür

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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12514/8037
Name Variants
Yilmaz, Yusuf Omur
Job Title
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi
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Department of Economics / İktisat Bölümü
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Current Staff
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17

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Scholarly Output

5

Articles

5

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12/0

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0

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0

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1

Scopus Citation Count

1

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1

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1

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0

WoS Citations per Publication

0.20

Scopus Citations per Publication

0.20

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2

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0

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Applied Economics2
Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies2
Economic Analysis and Policy1
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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Thumbnail Image
    Article
    Alışkan Formasyonlu Modelde Reel Döviz Kuru Dinamiği
    (2021) Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür
    Ampirik bulgular, reel döviz kurlarının hörgüç şeklinde dinamikler sergilediğini\rgöstermektedir. Fakat modern açık ekonomi modelleri çoğu zaman bu dinamikleri tahmin\redememektedir. Bu çalışmada, alışkanlık sürekliliği parametresi kullanılarak küçük açık\rekonomi modeli geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen model, risk paylaşım takozlu eksik bir piyasada\ralternatif para politikası kuralları altında standart para politikası şokuna cevaben reel döviz kuru\rdinamiklerini anlamamıza yardımcı olmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar, modele daha yüksek bir\ralışkanlık sürekliliği parametresinin dahil edilmesinin, standart ve ataletli Taylor kuralları\raltında reel döviz kurlarının hörgüç şeklindeki dinamiklerinin tahmin edilmesine yardımcı\rolduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı analizler, portföy uyarlama maliyetli eksik bir piyasada\rtekrarlanmış ve standart Taylor kuralında ilk dönemler hariç önceki analizlere benzer sonuçlar\rbulunmuştur.
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    Article
    Misspecified Expectations in an Open Economy
    (Elsevier, 2024) Yilmaz, Yusuf Omur; Cicekci, Cumhur
    In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced multiple changes in its monetary policy regime.To analyse how these policy changes affect the behaviours of households and firms, somebehavioural parameters are incorporated into a small open economy New Keynesian model. Ourapproach consists of four phases. First, we assess the impacts of the behavioural parameters onthe model and find that higher values of the parameters increase the effects of expectationson the model. Second, for the period between 2006 and 2021, the model is estimated for theTurkish economy and the findings show that both households and firms are more forward-looking in their decision making. Moreover, the current variables have a weak effect on thenominal interest rate, and the inertial nominal interest rate has a strong effect on it. Third, weanalyse the evolution of the model parameters over the period and find that the behaviouralparameters tend to increase, while the monetary policy becomes more inertial. Finally, weconclude that the Central Bank should follow Domestic Inflation-based Taylor rule to minimise welfare loss
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    Article
    A Case Against Average Inflation Targeting
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Yilmaz, Yusuf Omur
    Well-anchored inflation rate below a constant inflation target rate of 2% leads policymakers to seek make-up policies, including Average Inflation Targeting, Price Level Targeting, etc. In light of this, this article mainly aims to find out which policy rule - Average Inflation Targeting, Constant Inflation Targeting and Price Level Targeting - provides better macroeconomic performances at lower interest rates. Average Inflation Targeting policy is welfare improving against the Constant Inflation Targeting, but not Price Level Targeting. We conclude that a comparative application of the Price Level Targeting produces better macroeconomic performances, despite some weaknesses. We also discuss the source of the latest US inflation rate surge, and find that the design of the average inflation targeting policy can be responsible for extra inflation rate volatility.
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    Article
    Açık Bir Ekonomide Toplam İstikrarsızlığın Test Edilmesi
    (2022) Yılmaz, Yusuf Ömür
    Bu makale, alternatif para politikası kuralları altında pozitif uzun vadeli enflasyon oranı ve güneş lekesi şoku içeren küçük bir açık ekonomi Yeni-Keynesyen modeli kullanarak 2010 ve 2016 yılları arasında Türk ekonomisinin istikrarını ampirik olarak test etmektedir. Belirsizlik olasılıklarının bire çok yakın olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu dönemde ekonominin istikrarsız olduğu sonucuna varılabilir çünkü Merkez Bankası'nın enflasyona zayıf tepki vermesine rağmen uzun vadeli enflasyon oranı yüksek tek hanelidir. Bu durum ekonomiyi genel istikrarsızlığa sürüklemiştir.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    The Macroeconomic Effects of Positive Trend Inflation in a Small Open Economy
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Tunc, Gul Ipek; Yilmaz, Yusuf Omur
    The existing New Keynesian open economy literature tends to make the simplifying assumption that there is no trend inflation. In this paper, we reformulate the standard open economy model to account for positive trend inflation. We then employ the model to understand the effects of macroeconomic shocks in a small open economy when trend inflation is positive. Our main finding is that allowing for trend inflation significantly affects the dynamics of the model through real exchange rate dynamics rather than the slope of the New Keynesian Philips Curve. Specifically, higher trend inflation induces modestly more persistent real exchange rates' responses to the shocks. Further incorporation of trend inflation in an open economy enables us to discuss the Purchasing Power Parity and Delayed Overshooting Puzzles.