EKONOMİK KARMAŞIKLIK İNDEKSİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: CIVETS ÜLKELERİNDEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR
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Date
2022
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Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi
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Abstract
Bu çalışmada, CIVETS ülkelerinin 1995 ile 2019 dönemleri arasındaki ekonomik karmaşıklık düzeyi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki panel veri yaklaşımı kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analizin ilk aşamasında yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi uygulanmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı nedeniyle panel birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testi ikinci nesil testlerden seçilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmin edilmesi için Panel AMG tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ekonomik karmaşıklığın iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik ilişkisinin belirlenmesi için Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) panel nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Test analizlerine göre panelin geneli ve sadece Mısır için ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Kolombiya, Vietnam ve Türkiye için ekonomik büyümeden ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Endonezya için ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Güney Afrika için yapılan nedensellik sınamasında ise iki değişken arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılmamıştır.
This study has been tried to be presented connection level of economic complexity and economic growth in CIVETS countries during the period of 1995 and 2019 using panel data approach. First of all the cross-sectional dependence test was first applied. Panel unit root and cointegration tests were chosen from the second generation tests due to cross-sectional dependence. The Panel AMG estimator was used to estimate the cointegration coefficients. It has been determined that the effect of economic complexity on economic growth is positive and statistically significant. Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) panel causality test was conducted in order to determine the causality relationship between the variables. According to the analysis of causality test, a bi-directional causality relationship was found between the economic complexity index and economic growth in both panel and Egypt. A one-way causality relationship from economic growth to economic complexity index was found for Colombia, Vietnam and Turkey. For Indonesia, a one-way causality relationship from economic complexity index to economic growth was found. In the causality test for South Africa, no causality relationship was detected between the two variables.
This study has been tried to be presented connection level of economic complexity and economic growth in CIVETS countries during the period of 1995 and 2019 using panel data approach. First of all the cross-sectional dependence test was first applied. Panel unit root and cointegration tests were chosen from the second generation tests due to cross-sectional dependence. The Panel AMG estimator was used to estimate the cointegration coefficients. It has been determined that the effect of economic complexity on economic growth is positive and statistically significant. Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) panel causality test was conducted in order to determine the causality relationship between the variables. According to the analysis of causality test, a bi-directional causality relationship was found between the economic complexity index and economic growth in both panel and Egypt. A one-way causality relationship from economic growth to economic complexity index was found for Colombia, Vietnam and Turkey. For Indonesia, a one-way causality relationship from economic complexity index to economic growth was found. In the causality test for South Africa, no causality relationship was detected between the two variables.
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Keywords
Ekonomik Karmaşıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, CIVETS Ülkeleri, Economic Complexity, Economic Growth, CIVETS Countries
Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL
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Source
Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi
Volume
Issue
36
Start Page
237
End Page
251