A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Power Transformer Failures Using Internet of Things-Based Monitoring and Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Power transformers are critical components in ensuring the continuous and stable operation of power systems. Failures in these units can lead to significant power outages and costly downtime. Existing maintenance strategies often fail to accurately predict such failures, highlighting the need for novel predictive approaches. This study aims to improve the reliability of power systems by predicting transformer failures through the integration of IoT technologies and advanced machine learning techniques. The proposed hybrid model combines the LightGBM algorithm with GridSearch optimization to achieve both high predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. In addition, the model enhances interpretability by incorporating SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) for transparent decision making. The study presents a detailed comparison of different classification algorithms and evaluates their performance using metrics such as accuracy, recall, and F1 score. The results show that the hybrid model outperforms other methods, achieving an accuracy of 99.91%. The SHAP and LIME analyses provide engineers and researchers with valuable insights by highlighting the most influential features in failure prediction. In addition, the model's ability to efficiently handle large data sets enhances its practicality in real-world power systems. By proposing an innovative approach to failure prediction, this research contributes to both the theoretical foundation and practical advancement of sustainable and reliable energy infrastructures.