An Analysis of the Relationship between Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR), Money Supply and Inflation Rate in Türkiye

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the correlation between the public sector borrowing requirement, inflation rate, and money supply in Türkiye, utilizing yearly data spanning the period from 1975 to 2020. In this study, the authors employ the unit root tests with multiple structural breaks proposed by Zivot and Andrews, Lumsdaine and Papell, as well as the Maki cointegration tests with multiple structural breaks, to analyze the data. Subsequently, the application of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach was utilized to ascertain the presence of a long-term association between the variables. The results indicate a positive correlation between inflation rates in Türkiye and both the public sector borrowing need and money supply over an extended period of time. Furthermore, a bootstrap causality analysis was undertaken by Hacker and Hatemi in order to investigate the causative relationship between the variables. Based on the findings pertaining to causation, it has been observed that there exists a unidirectional causal relationship from the money supply to inflation, as well as from the public sector borrowing demand to the money supply